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Winter 2023-2024 weather forecast for Louisville

Prepare for winter weather in Derby City with these seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.

Louisville, Kentucky in winter.

Derby City scenes like this occur most frequently in January

Photo by @fotofem

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We know the question on your mind, Louisvillians — when’s it going to get really cold?

Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in our city for December, January, and February. While exact weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what winter will bring.

Reminder: The first day of winter is on Thursday, Dec. 21.


El Niño is in place heading into this upcoming winter for the first time in four years.

Map courtesy of NOAA


Think a little warmer than usual. This winter, Derby City has a 40% chance of temperatures being above normal — highs of 45°F and lows of 28°F.


Expect about average precipitation. Louisville has an equal chance of seeing higher or lower than average snow and rainfall amounts this winter.


No drought is expected this season in Louisville.

What December has in store

Typically in Louisville, December’s temperatures fluctuate between an average low of 32.1°F and an average high of 47.2°F, but expect to see more of those mid-40°F days this year. December is also the month that sees the shortest days, with an average of 9 hours and 34 minutes of daylight.

Onward to January

January has consistently been the coldest month of the year in the 502, with an average low of 27.8°F and an average high of 43.6°F. If you’re a fan of snow, this is when you can start to look for accumulation. The most likely months for snowfall in LOU are December-March — it typically snows 4.5 inches in January.

February’s forecast

February tends to be frosty in River City with an average low of 30.7°F and average high of 48.3°F. If you’re over the dark and dreary days by this point, here’s some good news — February is when Louisville starts to see longer days, averaging 10 hours and 48 minutes of daylight.

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